Last week a one-point win resulted in a very grumpy “Victory Monday.” Would any WFT fan be similarly fussy with a one-point win this week? Unfortunately, some would…but, not too many. This fan base has been marinated in toxicity for long enough that fair winds and following seas are considered a source of annoyance. Such grouchiness doesn’t simply melt away. It has to be slowly peeled back layer-by-layer until the core of the onion is in plain view. This takes more time than a single season affords. A win this week would surely loosen another layer. At least one would hope so. But, there are no guarantees.
A Stern Task
This week’s task looks to be daunting. The Eagles currently are the favorites to represent the National Conference in the Super Bowl. Detroit has been in that position nearly all season. But, the continuing hemorrhage of players lost to injury has been debilitating. This week the Lions have 19 players on Injured Reserve. They also have one of their two star Running Backs flying around the country trying to find a Sawbones to fix his knee without surgery. He’s out this week along with yet another Linebacker. By way of comparison Philly has only six players on the IR list. The one of note is Tight End Dallas Goedert, a favorite target of QB Jalen Hurts. So, even though Detroit and Philly are tied at 12-2, the nod goes to the healthier team. That’s the Eagles.
By the way, Washington only has five players on IR. However three of them are key contributors: Jonathan Allen, Austin Eckler, and Noah Brown.
“If you want to be a contender, you have to beat some heavy hitters”
Dan Quinn
By Way of Comparison
One way to get this game in perspective is an old technique used often in formulating power rankings. Add the rankings for Offense and Defense as they stand in the League. Just as in Cross-Country races the low score wins. Currently PHI is #8 in Offense and #1 in Defense based on points-scored for a total of 9. Washington is slightly better on Offense at #6, but 16th on Defense for a total of 22. The gap is on Defense by quite a bit. But, the problem with this approach is that it encompasses an entire season to-date. There are ebbs and flows to a season. September’s juggernauts are often December’s pedestrians. NFL executives look at the last four or five games to determine who they’re facing next.
In the last four games the Eagles have scored 27.5 points per game while giving up 17. In the same span Washington has scored 26 points per game while giving up 24.5. There are lots more comparison techniques. They will all show the same thing: Washington and Philly are comparable on Offense while there is a large gap on Defense. The advantage is with the Eagles.
Two Offenses
That Washington is comparable to the Eagles on Offense is noteworthy. For those old enough to remember, the NFL on CBS had a pre-game segment that featured well-publicized gambler Jimmy-the-Greek predicting the game at hand. His schtick was to use a check list of various team attributes. He’d go through the list and check off which team had the advantage for each category. If you take these two teams on Offense only and go through it an interesting pattern emerges. O-Line goes to PHI (and it’s not even close). WRs go to PHI. (PHI has two blues, WAS has one.) RB goes to PHI (Saquon Barkley is going to be 1st or 2nd in MVP balloting.) Tight End goes to PHI. (If Goedert and Ertz were both healthy it would still to go to PHI.) That leaves the Quarterback. If you pull the stats they both are very similar. But, the comparison stops there. Jayden Daniels is doing comparable things with much, much less talent around him.
Jalen Hurts is somewhat enigmatic. His best weapons are his legs. He actually has more rushing touchdowns than Barkley. Before Barkley arrived Hurts would take over games late in the proceedings with rushes. Now he hands off to Saquon. Dan Quinn pointed out the obvious early this week: Stopping him 25 times doesn’t mean he’ll be stopped on #26 when the Defense is tired. Still, Hurts can get hot throwing on occasion. He has the weapons to throw toward. AJ Green is a legitimate top-5 Receiver. Devonta Smith is no slouch. Both of them have caught 56 balls this season so far. Between them they have caught 11 touchdowns. That’s the same number as Terry McLaurin.
The Key is Scary
“We’ve definitely adjusted since that game. Definitely got different looks for myself moving around a little bit.”
Terry McLaurin
“Scary Terry” will get the lion’s share of attention from the Eagles’ Defense…as well they should. Of Washington’s 19 passing TD’s his 11 and Jack Ertz’s 4 leave only 4 on the board by 4 different Receivers. Everyone in the building knows who Jayden is targeting. McLaurin was stymied in the first game. Vic Fangio played shell Quarters coverage with a dedicated man on Terry. In essence, he was doubled all game long. He wasn’t “ignored” as some contended. He just wasn’t open. But, Kliff Kingsbury realized that he had made a mistake lining #17 up on the left side exclusively. Since then McLaurin has moved to the right some 29 times, good for 20 catches, 248 yards, and 5 touchdowns. The much lamented missed connections on deep balls last week both came with McLaurin on the right side. Expect more of it this week
The gaming industry has this game a touchdown difference favoring PHI. When the talking heads do their pre-game picks don’t look for any burgundy and gold helmets. But, an upset is not unthinkable. It’s simply unlikely. Somewhere is a Sports Handicapper (“Tout”) screaming to take the “Home Dog.” This game is not a “Must Win” by any means. Washington’s lynchpin game is next week against Atlanta. A win there might be enough all by itself to punch a ticket to the playoffs. Regardless, this team is playing meaningful games very late in the season. That, in and of itself, is a very nice Christmas present.
Philadelphia at Washington
Fox 1 p.m.
Joe Davis, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver
Compass Media Radio: Chris Carrino, Brian Baldinger
