Reality Check

The NFL is a small community. In this 2018 photo current Carolina owner David Tepper is chatting with his Head Coach Ron Rivera. Tepper would fire Ron mid-season the following year. The next season began Riverboat Ron’s four-year tenure in Washington.

Last week the Washington football hype train hit a speed bump when it encountered the Baltimore Ravens. Six weeks of increasing achievement hit against the reality of a real Super Bowl contender. For decades the Ravens were everything the WFT was not; A strong and efficient organization that consistently fielded competitive teams. Their Head Coach has been there for 17-years. Washington meanwhile was an Owner-driven hot mess. The franchise famously received new ownership, gutted the organization, and came as close to starting over as practical. Coming into the matchup Dan Quinn said frankly, “The Ravens are where we want to get to.” So, it should not have been a surprise that the nascent Burgundy and Gold squad left Baltimore with a loss, albeit a hard-fought one. They also left town with a season-ending injury to standout Defensive Tackle Jonathan Allen. When reality hits it usually punches hard.

When Tough Was Not Enough

One play summed up the day in a nutshell: Daniels to Noah Brown for a first down followed by a clear-cut Roughing-the-Passer penalty by Kyle Hamilton…that was not called. In college ball this would have been a “Targeting” penalty since Hamilton lead with the crown of his helmet to Jayden’s facemask. Hamilton has been ejected for this type of hit before. Not this time. Daniels stood in there, took the hit, and completed the pass. Jim Nantz flatly stated that Hamilton would get fined. That fine will be announced Saturday afternoon. It won’t make anyone on the Washington sideline feel any better, however. Daniels demonstrated his plucky toughness. It’s no wonder his teammates have such respect for him. Unfortunately, plucky toughness was not enough to carry the day.

Translation: “2 things here. Daniels is very good, roll out, pass on the move in the opposite direction and wins the 1 down by holding the ball. In the last frames of the video, Hamilton goes helmet to helmet with Jayden, brushes with targeting…if it were a certain Patrick who receives it, watch out.

After two weeks of improvement the Defense came crashing down to its previously poor levels. With Lamar Jackson and armored vehicle Derrick Henry in the backfield Washington crowded the line with bodies. This left the Defensive Backs mostly in Man coverage. Benjamin St-Juste has been scapegoated by many for being torched by Baltimore’s Zay Flowers. The fact is that St-Juste is not a shutdown Cornerback by any means. He’s better in Zone. He’s better against taller Receivers. The Flowers matchup was not going to go well. But, Washington couldn’t just let Jackson and Henry run wild against a light “Box” with Linebackers dropping into pass coverage. The theory is to take away something from the opposition. Make them do what they don’t want to do. Unfortunately for the WFT the Defense didn’t take away anything despite trying. Jackson and Henry ran wild.

If there’s any solace to be had it is the knowledge that Baltimore will do that to a lot of teams until or unless one of the dynamic duo gets sidelined. That, and other than pre-season Washington won’t see those guys for another four years. Well, that is unless there’s a Super Bowl matchup in the meantime.

Patience, Grasshopper

Imagine riding in a nearly empty subway car every work day for years. Suddenly it’s full every day. Your quiet time is now occupied by noise, aromas, and constant movement. The Hype Train is like that now. After a desultory couple of decades the fan base awoke with a vengeance. If you have some spare time go read the Commentariat on the various WFT-related boards. It’s crazy out there! “This GM should be embarrassed to put such an incompetent Defense on the field.” “Cut all of the DBs.” “Fire the DC.” That’s the smallest of sample sizes. This team is way, way ahead of schedule. It’s easily a year or more ahead thanks in large measure to Jayden Daniels.

One year into a “Recalibration” as Dan Quinn put it, this team is only partially manned by average NFL-level players. The above-average players pop out from the rest. Look for a huge improvement over the offseason. Next year Washington has TEN Draft Picks, only 30 players under contract, and the second-most salary cap room in the League at $126+ million. The cavalry is coming, but it won’t get here this year.

A Vicarious Deja Vu’

The best way to get over a loss is to go get a win. The old Professor would say that, “Two data points do not make a trend.” He obviously was not a football fan. Two-week streaks good or bad represent significant trends in the NFL. That’s part of what makes this game so important to Washington. The other part is that they should win. Betting lines don’t always reflect reality. But, the eight-point-favorite line on the WFT feels about right.

Charlotte, NC was awarded a franchise in 1993 beginning operations in 1996. The Charlotte TV market is the nation’s 23rd. Charlotte split the difference between Washington and Atlanta. There is still a strong Washington fan base in the Carolinas, however. North Carolina is one of the states that doesn’t require a tag on the front of the vehicle. There’s a lot of Burgundy and Gold front plates around; especially in the mountains. The franchise has a wonderful stadium that is going to be renovated soon. It has gone to a Super Bowl. There are currently four teams that have never been. So, things should be going pretty well for Carolina. Right? Uh, actually, no.

They have an Owner that behaves not totally unlike Washington’s previous Steward. David Tepper is currently paying three coaching staffs. One is lead by the newest of his Head Coaches, David Canales. The other two he fired well before their contracts were up. If you want to build a case for impulsiveness there are other examples. Someone heckled him at an away game. Supposedly Tepper threw a drink on the fan from a luxury box. Too bad he didn’t do that at a Biker Bar.

Whatever voices speak to Mr. Tepper they convinced him that he needed to make a big splash. After firing his coach mid-season the Interim position was fielded by Steve Wilks. He did an admirable job. It wasn’t enough to convince David to keep him. So he hired a former Head Coach and University of Maryland alum Frank Reich. His reputation was that of a Quarterback Whisperer. Tepper’s big plan was to trade up to #1 and get his Franchise QB. Here was the trade:

Panthers receive: 2023 first-round pick (No. 1 overall)

Bears receive: 2025 second-round pick, WR D.J. Moore, 2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall), 023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall), and 2024 first-round pick (No. 1 overall)

The Bears took Caleb Williams with the 2024 1st-Rounder. In 2023 the Bears took OT Darnell Wright in the first round. Darnell is 6’5″ tall and 333 pounds. He’s good. In the second round they took CB Tyrique Stevenson. He has 5 interceptions in a year and a half. Chicago also picked up a Punter from the trade after wheeling and dealing Draft picks. Then there’s DJ Moore who was Carolina’s best Receiver. Oh, and don’t forget the Bears will probably get the first pick in the Second Round next year. That’s a Catbird Seat pick. The GM’s phone will ring all night long as other teams try to get their guy with the First-Round grade that slid into the Second. The Bears made out very, very well.

The Bryce Conundrum

Carolina got the guy Tepper wanted; Bryce Young. There are lots of not-so-quiet whispers that the selection came over objections by Reich and others in the football organization. There’s a fair amount of intrigue within the building. Tepper has a few Palace Guard folks sprinkled throughout. When he hired his latest new coach some of the Assistants and Coordinators were retained by Tepper. Normally a new coach would fill his own staff. Divided loyalties within an organization are a sure-fired ingredient for systemic dysfunction.

Lots of talking heads were totally enamored by Young. But, many gray-haired football types were not. The late Gil Brandt had a hard-and-fast rule: Never draft a QB shorter than 6’1″ tall. Alabama listed Young at 6’0″. At the Scouting Combine he came up a bit short of that at 5’10&1/8“. Drew Brees is considered to be a short QB. But, he’s actually 6’0″. Bryce dominated in college. He set single-season records at Alabama for yards and touchdowns as well as being the first ‘Bama QB to ever throw 5 touchdowns in a game. Some of the former QBs he passed along the way were Joe Namath and Ken Stabler. College and the Pros are two different things, however.

The Bryce Young experiment went to hell in a hurry. Between a poor supporting cast and complete chaos in the coaching staff he just simply floundered. It got so bad in 2023 one could purchase good seats at a Panthers’ home game for $6 or $8 on the secondary market.

The new coach started Young for two games. That was all he needed to see. In came “All Day Andy” Dalton. At 36 he’s seen plenty of football. The team responded with a resounding win. It’s been the only one in the campaign so far. Young came in for mop-up duty in one game and looked good. There’s no telling where this will lead. If the organization decides that Bryce is not going to be their functioning QB, and the Owner agrees, it sets the stage for a dramatic offseason. Carolina is well on its way to another 1st-Round, 1st-Overall pick. Could it be a QB?

Just Win, Baby!

For what little it’s worth this early in the season the NFC East Division looks like it’s there for the taking. Philly is coached by a man sorely lacking in discretion and leadership. Last week he decided to return a heckling fan’s ire. Then he hid behind his kids at the postgame presser. His team barely beat the reeling Browns who scored their only TD on a blocked Field Goal.

Dallas, whoa! Detroit boat-raced the Cowboys. They didn’t lose a home game all last year until the playoffs. They haven’t won a home game since. And, two of the losses were just butt-whippings. It’s ignited all kinds of sparks and smoke around the 82-year old Owner. He’s known among disgruntled Dallas fans as, “The General Manager who can’t be fired.” One thing is for certain. He’s paid Dak Prescott and Cee Dee Lamb so much money that fielding a team around them is problematic. Should he sign Micah Parsons to the type of contract he’s going to want the team will be spending over 50% of its cap on three players. Three. The other fifty will get the leftovers.

Then there are the scrappy Giants. They’ll provide a tough game. A successful campaign is another matter. They lost their starting Left Tackle this week.

Whether Washington will win the Division is months from resolution. It would help the case immensely to win this game. This is the dreaded “Trap Game.” For a team with four wins all last year it is an odd feeling to be favorites.

Tough games are coming right up. The Bears are vastly improved over the crew that came to Washington and embarrassed the WFT last year. Their QB is figuring out things. And, their Defense is for real being anchored by old friend Montez Sweat. Washington won’t be favored in that game nor should they be. But, they are the predicted winners this week by many. They need to deliver in order to keep their tenuous grip on first place.

Carolina at Washington

CBS/Paramount+ 4:05 p.m.
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn

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