Tampa Bay Head Coach Todd Bowles played 7 of his 8 years at Safety in Washington
The rebuilt WFT is set to embark on a transition year. Nothing about this will be particularly easy. Of the 17 games on the schedule only 7 are against teams that had losing records last year. Eight games are against teams that made the playoffs last year. And then, two are against teams with winning records that did not make the playoffs. Four games against the NFC East dominating Cowboys and Eagles are one thing. The other is the four games against the best division in football, the AFC North. Remarkably all four of those teams had winning records last year. This could be a rough ride. There’s no sense in starting on such a daunting journey with a cupcake. Tampa will be all the test this young squad will want…and more.
“A ship in harbor is safe. But, that is not what ships are built for.”
Albert Einstein.
After a first full season of peeling and painting it’s time to take this ship out to sea. The questions are numerous. Corresponding answers are unknown. Drafting Jayden Daniels may have solved the largest issue facing a poor team in today’s era. Pre-season results have been encouraging. His attitude and work ethic have been on full display. When asked about the pressures of being a starter right out of the chute his response: “Pressure is a privilege.” All the boxes have been checked…so far. Now it’s time to get into the real fray. The recipe for opposing defenses against young QBs is simple: Bring pressures. Few coaches are better at that than Todd Bowles.
Offense Approach
Defensing a QB with good, make that great wheels is more complicated than sitting back in Tampa 2. Linebackers can not turn their back on the line of scrimmage. That’s when the big runs come. Expect Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury to run mostly the “Pistol” formation with “11 Personnel.” QB lines up only four yards behind center instead of seven for the “Shotgun.” RB lines up anywhere from three yards behind the QB, beside him on either side, or in a wing. Eleven personnel means one RB and one Tight End leaving three Wide Receivers. Here’s what that looks like:
The basic Pistol Formation
The Pistol was made for a QB that can run. It forces defenses to come up closer to the line of scrimmage. Outside zone runs are a staple from this formation. Run-Pass-Options open up as well. Unlike the traditional “21 Personnel” with two RBs and one TE, this presents a balanced front. In 21 there was a strong and weak side depending on the TE alignment. Consequently, the Pistol opens up the entire field. One of the advantages turns out to be that this formation helps a poor Offensive Line. If one thinks of Tom Brady statue-like in the pocket every defensive player knew exactly where he’d be. Protection became a test of skill by the O-Line versus the skills of the pass rushers. In Pistol the pocket can be anywhere including the QB on the move laterally. It becomes less of a straight ahead skills competition between lines. If you haven’t heard, Washington’s O-Line is not very good.
Tampa’s Answer
Todd Bowles is one of the top Defensive Play Callers in the game. Currently he is rated in the top five by Pro Football Focus. One of his counters to the Pistol is the “Bear Front.” He will put five men on the line with one LB in the middle. It takes away a strength of the Pistol, the outside zone run. All five defensive front players might rush. Three might rush as the two ends drop into coverage. Or the End over the TE might drop into coverage. For grins he could send the sole LB on a Dog rush. So the QB has to interpret this pre-snap. There are somewhere between three and six players coming after him. It’s a good enough scheme to confuse even a grizzled veteran. For a rookie QB in his first-ever game it’s a daunting challenge. IF Daniels handles this well then the hype may be on point.
Defensive Challenges
Perhaps a bigger challenge in this game will be Tampa’s offense versus the WFT defense. Baker Mayfield is a player re-born. His return to grace is a compelling story. Mike Evans is a top-tier receiver. On the other side of the ledger Washington’s defense was appalling last year. The heart of the unit was supposed to be the Tackles Payne and Allen. They played indifferently, at best. Supposedly they are both infused with new energy with the coaching changes. They need to be. WFT’s defense is skewed. The interior line is a strength; the Edges are below average; the LBs are very strong as are the Safeties. Then there are the Cornerbacks. Frankly, it’s not a good room. Rookie Mike Sainristril is projected to be a good one. But, the requisite growing pains are sure to be there. Last year’s #1 draft pick, Emmanuel Forbes is still on the team. He was, being charitable, pretty awful last year.
Against a somewhat disjointed defense like this look for Mayfield to find anyone running a route against a single Corner. Running up the middle could be tough. Tosses and Jet Sweeps should be effective. Dan Quinn’s days as Defensive Coordinator featured a lot of “Cover 3.” That arrangement features a single high Free Safety. two safeties up in the traditional Linebacker spacing, and two Corners. It’s zone coverage all the way. There are two base types of Defenses; MOFC, or MOFO (Middle of the field Closed, or Open.) This is a closed middle arrangement. It is effective against most running schemes. The two Safeties in close help with short to intermediate outs. And, the Corners get help on almost everything but a quick out. With Washington’s suspect Corners expect to see a lot of this defensive alignment.
A base “Cover 3”
The Season Ahead
So, how is this game going to go? The fanbase will just have to tune in and find out. The season seems to be a little bit easier to prognosticate. Those that set the odds put the over/under wins for WFT at 6.5. Here’s what it would take to get to seven wins: Win two of the six division games. Win one of the four games against the AFC North. Then win four of the seven remaining games. There are conveniently four teams among those seven with losing records last year. It may seem modest. But, seven wins would be a huge improvement over recent editions of the club. That win total would also boost hopes for additional success going forward. However, it will only be achievable if Jayden Daniels manages to stay on his feet all season.
Daniels chose to honor “Touch of Class” QB Doug Williams by wearing his number 17 jersey to the first pre-season game. Williams works in the same building as the youngster. Often as they pass in the hallway Doug reportedly says to the rookie, “You have to learn to slide.”
Hopefully the young man is listening.
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date: Sunday, September 9 Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL Channel: FOX
